A review of risk management and risk assessment methods in HDD projects

Soliman, Ashraf; ELBELTAGI, EMAD; Basha, Ali

doi:10.21608/jctae.2025.384607.1054

A review of risk management and risk assessment methods in HDD projects

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ teaching assistant in Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Kafrelsheikh University

² Professor of Construction Management, Mansoura University, Egypt

³ Civil and structural engineering department, Kafrelsheikh university

10.21608/jctae.2025.384607.1054

Abstract

Risk assessment is an important aspect of HDD project planning and management processes. Many approaches exist to recognize and measure risks that occur in difficult and unpredictable scenarios. In this review, different HDD project risk assessment techniques are compared, which include traditional qualitative methods along with quantitative analysis and fuzzy logic and Monte Carlo simulation. The research evaluates every approach to determine their specific benefits and limitations in various project conditions. The assessment evaluates the techniques based on precision along with simplicity of implementation and informational requirements and handling of ambiguous information. The study provides guidance to engineers and project managers who need to select an appropriate risk assessment approach for their individual HDD projects. Horizontal directional drilling (HDD) projects require a comprehensive risk assessment due to unpredictable subsurface variables and operational challenges. This review discusses the performance of Monte Carlo simulation versus fuzzy logic in engineering project risk assessment. Monte Carlo simulation generates results through probability distributions, while fuzzy logic techniques enable human reasoning by translating uncertainties into linguistic terms. The study evaluates both methods by applying them to a horizontal directional drilling (HDD) case study to determine their ability to detect and quantify potential project risks. The review evaluates accuracy and simplicity, along with data requirements and complexity suitability for complex projects. The review highlights the advantages and disadvantages of both methods, helping stakeholders choose the best risk assessment tool for HDD project planning and developing a hybrid method that combines Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy logic.

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